By following the highest standards and best practices, CRIC members have been consistently accurate in predicting elections. In fact, a global analysis (ESOMAR) into the accuracy of surveys concluded that done well, surveys overwhelmingly continue to correctly predict election outcomes. The study looked at more than 31,000 surveys from 473 voting events across 40 countries spanning 1936 – 2017, and found that at a global level, the average error of surveys conducted within seven days before an election is +/-2.5%. The ESOMAR study included surveys from the four Canadian federal elections prior to 2019 and found that Canadian survey researchers performed well with average errors below the global average. CRIC members also correctly predicted the results of the 2019 and 2021 federal elections that took place after the ESOMAR study.
“Because election polls are a litmus test for survey research overall, decision-makers from all sectors need to understand that surveys — when done well —remain an important source of information in decision-making as they ever were,” stated Gary Bennewies, Chair of CRIC and President and CEO, Ipsos Canada.
The Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) is Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally. CRIC represents the highest standards, ethics, and best practices; provides effective promotion and advocacy of the industry; serves as a source of information and thought leadership; and is a forum for collective industry action. CRIC’s members include Canada’s leading research agencies as well as client organizations, academic institutions, and other industry partners.
For more information, visit www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca or contact John Tabone at [email protected].
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